A nomogram to predict postoperative pulmonary complications after cardiothoracic surgery.

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The Journal of thoracic and cardiovascular surgery


OBJECTIVE: The objective was to develop a novel scoring system that would be predictive of postoperative pulmonary complications in critically ill patients after cardiac and major vascular surgery.

METHODS: A total of 17,433 postoperative patients after coronary artery bypass graft, valve, or thoracic aorta repair surgery admitted to the cardiovascular intensive care units at Cleveland Clinic Main Campus from 2009 to 2015. The primary outcome was the composite of postoperative pulmonary complications, including pneumonia, prolonged postoperative mechanical ventilation (>48 hours), or reintubation occurring during the hospital stay. Elastic net logistic regression was used on the training subset to build a prediction model that included perioperative predictors. Five-fold cross-validation was used to select an appropriate subset of the predictors. The predictive efficacy was assessed with calibration and discrimination statistics. Post hoc, of 13,353 adult patients, we tested the clinical usefulness of our risk prediction model on 12,956 patients who underwent surgery from 2015 to 2019.

RESULTS: Postoperative pulmonary complications were observed in 1669 patients (9.6%). A prediction model that included baseline and demographic risk factors along with perioperative predictors had a C-statistic of 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.88), with a corrected Brier score of 0.06. Our prediction model maintains satisfactory discrimination (C-statistics of 0.87) and calibration (Brier score of 0.07) abilities when evaluated on an independent dataset of 12,843 recent adult patients who underwent cardiovascular surgery.

CONCLUSIONS: A novel prediction nomogram accurately predicted postoperative pulmonary complications after major cardiac and vascular surgery. Intensivists may use these predictors to allow for proactive and preventative interventions in this patient population.

Medical Subject Headings

Humans; Nomograms; Postoperative Complications; Coronary Artery Bypass; Risk Factors; Logistic Models; Retrospective Studies

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