Accuracy of Seattle Heart Failure Model and HeartMate II Risk Score in Non-Inotrope-Dependent Advanced Heart Failure Patients: Insights From the ROADMAP Study (Risk Assessment and Comparative Effectiveness of Left Ventricular Assist Device and Medical Management in Ambulatory Heart Failure Patients).
Lanfear DE, Levy WC, Stehlik J, Estep JD, Rogers JG, Shah KB, Boyle AJ, Chuang J, Farrar DJ, Starling RC. Accuracy of seattle heart failure model and heartmate ii risk score in non-inotrope-dependent advanced heart failure patients: Insights from the roadmap study (risk assessment and comparative effectiveness of left ventricular assist device and medical management in ambulatory heart failure patients). Circ Heart Fail. 2017;10(5)
Circ Heart Fail
BACKGROUND: Timing of left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation in advanced heart failure patients not on inotropes is unclear. Relevant prediction models exist (SHFM [Seattle Heart Failure Model] and HMRS [HeartMate II Risk Score]), but use in this group is not established.
METHODS AND RESULTS: ROADMAP (Risk Assessment and Comparative Effectiveness of Left Ventricular Assist Device and Medical Management in Ambulatory Heart Failure Patients) is a prospective, multicenter, nonrandomized study of 200 advanced heart failure patients not on inotropes who met indications for LVAD implantation, comparing the effectiveness of HeartMate II support versus optimal medical management. We compared SHFM-predicted versus observed survival (overall survival and LVAD-free survival) in the optimal medical management arm (n=103) and HMRS-predicted versus observed survival in all LVAD patients (n=111) using Cox modeling, receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves, and calibration plots. In the optimal medical management cohort, the SHFM was a significant predictor of survival (hazard ratio=2.98;
CONCLUSIONS: In non-inotrope-dependent advanced heart failure patients receiving optimal medical management, the SHFM was predictive of overall survival but underestimated the risk of clinical worsening and LVAD implantation. Among LVAD patients, the HMRS had marginal discrimination and underestimated survival post-LVAD implantation.
CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01452802.
Medical Subject Headings
Aged; Disease Management; Female; Follow-Up Studies; Heart Failure; Heart Ventricles; Heart-Assist Devices; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Outpatients; Prospective Studies; ROC Curve; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Survival Rate; Treatment Outcome; United States