Development and validation of algorithms for identifying lines of therapy in multiple myeloma using real-world data

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Future Oncol


Aim: To validate algorithms based on electronic health data to identify composition of lines of therapy (LOT) in multiple myeloma (MM). Materials & methods: This study used available electronic health data for selected adults within Henry Ford Health (Michigan, USA) newly diagnosed with MM in 2006-2017. Algorithm performance in this population was verified via chart review. As with prior oncology studies, good performance was defined as positive predictive value (PPV) ≥75%.

Results: Accuracy for identifying LOT1 (N = 133) was 85.0%. For the most frequent regimens, accuracy was 92.5-97.7%, PPV 80.6-93.8%, sensitivity 88.2-89.3% and specificity 94.3-99.1%. Algorithm performance decreased in subsequent LOTs, with decreasing sample sizes. Only 19.5% of patients received maintenance therapy during LOT1. Accuracy for identifying maintenance therapy was 85.7%; PPV for the most common maintenance therapy was 73.3%.

Conclusion: Algorithms performed well in identifying LOT1 - especially more commonly used regimens - and slightly less well in identifying maintenance therapy therein.

Electronic health data helps us understand treatment in the ‘real world’. The data has great value in cancer if we can identify the drugs patients get. Yet this is hard in multiple myeloma (MM), where treatment is complex. Algorithms (set of decision rules) to identify drugs can help here. We tested an existing algorithm for identifying ‘lines of therapy’ (LOT) given to patients with MM. Each LOT included one or more drugs for MM. We also developed and tested a new algorithm for ‘maintenance therapy’. This is a treatment given to help maintain the response to the main MM treatment. We tested how well the algorithms identified MM treatments in electronic health data. This data came from Henry Ford Health, a healthcare system in Michigan, USA. Treatments were confirmed by cancer specialists who reviewed medical charts. The LOT algorithm was good at finding the first LOT patients. The maintenance algorithm did a fair job of identifying the most used therapy. Our algorithms could help researchers study the real-world treatment of MM.

Medical Subject Headings

Adult; Humans; Multiple Myeloma; Predictive Value of Tests; Algorithms; Databases, Factual; Electronic Health Records

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ePub ahead of print





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