A Prediction Model to Help with the Assessment of Adenopathy in Lung Cancer: HAL
O'Connell OJ, Almeida FA, Simoff MJ, Yarmus L, Lazarus R, Young B, Chen Y, Semaan R, Saettele TM, Cicenia J, Bedi H, Kliment C, Li L, Sethi S, Diaz-Mendoza J, Feller-Kopman D, Song J, Gildea T, Lee H, Grosu HB, Machuzak M, Rodriguez-Vial M, Eapen GA, Jimenez CA, Casal RF, Ost DE. A Prediction Model to Help with the Assessment of Adenopathy in Lung Cancer: HAL. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2017 Jun 15;195(12):1651-1660.
American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine
RATIONALE: Estimating the probability of finding N2 or N3 (prN2/3) malignant nodal disease on endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) can facilitate the selection of subsequent management strategies.
OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction model for estimating the prN2/3.
METHODS: We used the AQuIRE (American College of Chest Physicians Quality Improvement Registry, Evaluation, and Education) registry to identify patients with NSCLC with clinical radiographic stage T1-3, N0-3, M0 disease that had EBUS-TBNA for staging. The dependent variable was the presence of N2 or N3 disease (vs. N0 or N1) as assessed by EBUS-TBNA. Univariate followed by multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop a parsimonious clinical prediction model to estimate prN2/3. External validation was performed using data from three other hospitals.
MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The model derivation cohort (n = 633) had a 25% prevalence of malignant N2 or N3 disease. Younger age, central location, adenocarcinoma histology, and higher positron emission tomography-computed tomography N stage were associated with a higher prN2/3. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.89), model fit was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = 0.62; Brier score, 0.125). We externally validated the model in 722 patients. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.90). Calibration using the general calibration model method resulted in acceptable goodness of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.54; Brier score, 0.132).
CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction rule can be used to estimate prN2/3 in patients with NSCLC. The model has the potential to facilitate clinical decision making in the staging of NSCLC.
Medical Subject Headings
Aged; Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung; Endoscopic Ultrasound-Guided Fine Needle Aspiration; Female; Humans; Lung Neoplasms; Lymph Nodes; Lymphadenopathy; Lymphatic Metastasis; Male; Predictive Value of Tests; Retrospective Studies