Improving the stratification of intermediate risk prostate cancer

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Minerva Urol Nephrol


BACKGROUND: Intermediate risk prostate cancer (IR PCa) may exhibit a wide array of phenotypes, from favorable to unfavorable. NCCN criteria help distinguishing between favorable versus unfavorable subgroups. We studied and attempted to improve this classification.

METHODS: Within the SEER database 2010-2016, we identified 19,193 IR PCa patients treated with radical prostatectomy. A multivariable logistic regression model predicting unfavorable IR PCa was developed and externally validated, in addition to a head-to-head comparison with NCCN IR PCa stratification.

RESULTS: Model development (development cohort n=13,436: 3,585 unfavorable versus 9,851 favorable) rested on age, PSA, clinical T stage, biopsy Gleason Grade Group (GGG) and percentage of positive cores. All were independent predictors of unfavorable IR PCa. In external validation cohort (n=5,757: 1,652 unfavorable versus 4,105 favorable), NCCN stratification was 61.8% accurate in discriminating between favorable versus unfavorable, compared to 67.6% for nomogram, which exhibited excellent calibration, less pronounced departures from ideal prediction and greater net-benefit in decision curve analyses (DCA) than NCCN stratification. The optimal nomogram cutoff misclassified 312 of 1976 patients (15.8%) versus 598 of 2877 (20.8%) for NCCN stratification. Of NCCN misclassified patients, 90.0% harbored pT3-4 stages versus 84.6% of nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS: The newly developed, externally validated nomogram discriminates better between favorable versus unfavorable IR PCa, according to overall accuracy, calibration, DCA, and actual numbers and stage distribution of misclassified patients.

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ePub ahead of print