Development of a Novel Score to Predict Urgent Mechanical Circulatory Support in Chronic Total Occlusion Percutaneous Coronary Intervention
Recommended Citation
Karacsonyi J, Stanberry L, Simsek B, Kostantinis S, Allana SS, Rempakos A, Okeson B, Alaswad K, Basir MB, Jaffer F, Poommipanit P, Khatri J, Patel M, Mahmud E, Sheikh A, Wollmuth JR, Yeh RW, Chandwaney RH, ElGuindy AM, Abi Rafeh N, Schimmel DR, Benzuly K, Burke MN, Rangan BV, Mastrodemos OC, Sandoval Y, Ungi I, and Brilakis ES. Development of a Novel Score to Predict Urgent Mechanical Circulatory Support in Chronic Total Occlusion Percutaneous Coronary Intervention. Am J Cardiol 2023; 202:111-118.
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
9-1-2023
Publication Title
The American journal of cardiology
Abstract
Estimating the likelihood of urgent mechanical circulatory support (MCS) can facilitate procedural planning and clinical decision-making in chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We analyzed 2,784 CTO PCIs performed between 2012 and 2021 at 12 centers. The variable importance was estimated by a bootstrap applying a random forest algorithm to a propensity-matched sample (a ratio of 1:5 matching cases with controls on center). The identified variables were used to predict the risk of urgent MCS. The performance of the risk model was assessed in-sample and on 2,411 out-of-sample procedures that did not require urgent MCS. Urgent MCS was used in 62 (2.2%) of cases. Patients who required urgent MCS were older (70 [63 to 77] vs 66 [58 to 73] years, p = 0.003) compared with those who did not require urgent MCS. Technical (68% vs 87%, p <0.001) and procedural success (40% vs 85%, p <0.001) was lower in the urgent MCS group compared with cases that did not require urgent MCS. The risk model for urgent MCS use included retrograde crossing strategy, left ventricular ejection fraction, and lesion length. The resulting model demonstrated good calibration and discriminatory capacity with the area under the curve (95% confidence interval) of 0.79 (0.73 to 0.86) and specificity and sensitivity of 86% and 52%, respectively. In the out-of-sample set, the specificity of the model was 87%. The Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention CTO MCS score can help estimate the risk of urgent MCS use during CTO PCI.
Medical Subject Headings
Humans; Risk Factors; Treatment Outcome; Percutaneous Coronary Intervention; Prospective Studies; Stroke Volume; Coronary Occlusion; Chronic Disease; Ventricular Function, Left; Registries; Coronary Angiography
PubMed ID
37429059
Volume
202
First Page
111
Last Page
118
