Genetic signature to provide robust risk assessment of psoriatic arthritis development in psoriasis patients

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

10-9-2018

Publication Title

Nat Commun

Abstract

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is a complex chronic musculoskeletal condition that occurs in ~30% of psoriasis patients. Currently, no systematic strategy is available that utilizes the differences in genetic architecture between PsA and cutaneous-only psoriasis (PsC) to assess PsA risk before symptoms appear. Here, we introduce a computational pipeline for predicting PsA among psoriasis patients using data from six cohorts with >7000 genotyped PsA and PsC patients. We identify 9 new loci for psoriasis or its subtypes and achieve 0.82 area under the receiver operator curve in distinguishing PsA vs. PsC when using 200 genetic markers. Among the top 5% of our PsA prediction we achieve >90% precision with 100% specificity and 16% recall for predicting PsA among psoriatic patients, using conditional inference forest or shrinkage discriminant analysis. Combining statistical and machine-learning techniques, we show that the underlying genetic differences between psoriasis subtypes can be used for individualized subtype risk assessment.

Comments

© authors, Creative Commons Attribution License

Medical Subject Headings

Arthritis, Psoriatic; Biomarkers; Cohort Studies; Enhancer Elements, Genetic; Gene Expression Profiling; Genetic Loci; Humans; Meta-Analysis as Topic; Risk Assessment

PubMed ID

30301895

Volume

9

Issue

1

First Page

4178

Last Page

4178

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