52910 Projected burden of melanoma clinical surveillance in the United States
Recommended Citation
Matthews N, Hamad J, Henderson J, Mariotto A, Weinstock M, Ellis C. 52910 Projected burden of melanoma clinical surveillance in the United States. J Am Acad Dermatol 2024; 91(3):AB288.
Document Type
Conference Proceeding
Publication Date
9-1-2024
Publication Title
J Am Acad Dermatol
Abstract
Background: Melanoma ranks fifth among the most diagnosed cancers in the US. Melanoma survival rate is excellent when diagnosed early, and survival at later stages is improving. The implications of rising melanoma prevalence on dermatology melanoma skin exam follow-up visits remain uncertain. Objective: We aimed to project the volume of melanoma surveillance visits in the US, emphasizing its effect on dermatology demand, and offer a graphical interface model for providers to foresee melanoma surveillance load over the next two decades. Methods: Leveraging the US melanoma incidence and survival data from the SEER registries (1975–2015) and US population projections until 2040, we created a simulation model based on melanoma prevalence projections and recommended surveillance schedules by the NCCN and the AAD. This algebraic estimation considered various follow-up recommendations and loss due to attrition, without incorporating probability models. Results: Under a conservative annual surveillance schedule, the number of visits per dermatologist will increase by 18.7% from 92.3% in 2020 to 109.5% by 2040, versus an increase of 15.6% from 120.6% in 2020 to 139.6% by 2040 when adhering to a more aggressive surveillance schedule in which exams are performed every 6 months for the first 5 years, and annually thereafter. The number of additional dermatologists needed in 2040 to maintain 2020 parity is 3,022 for the annual surveillance case versus 2,519 for the aggressive surveillance case. Conclusion: Our model predicts a substantial increase in melanoma surveillance visits, exacerbating the strain on the dermatology workforce amid a growing and aging US population.
Volume
91
Issue
3
First Page
AB288
