MM-581: Tracking Mortality in Multiple Myeloma-Associated Acute Kidney Injury: U.S. Trends (1999–2023) and ARIMA-Based Projections Through 2050
Recommended Citation
Zubair A, Arham M, Khan SA, Tareen H, Dad A, Siddiqui E, Altaf MT, Bakht K, Jehangir H, Saleem F, Iqbal K, Ahmed H. MM-581: Tracking Mortality in Multiple Myeloma-Associated Acute Kidney Injury: U.S. Trends (1999–2023) and ARIMA-Based Projections Through 2050. Clin Lymphoma Myeloma Leuk 2025; 25:S928.
Document Type
Conference Proceeding
Publication Date
9-1-2025
Publication Title
Clin Lymphoma Myeloma Leuk
Abstract
Acute kidney injury (AKI) affects up to 20% of patients with multiple myeloma (MM), rendering it a significant contributor to the mortality burden of the disease. Our hypothesis posits that MM-associated AKI mortality demonstrates significant socioeconomic and regional disparities. Objectives: This study aims to assess MM-associated AKI mortality trends in U.S. adults (≥65 years) from 1999 to 2023 and project overall trends through 2050 using the CDC WONDER database, focusing on socioeconomic disparities. Methods: Mortality data were obtained from the CDC WONDER database (1999–2023) using ICD-10 codes C90 (MM) and N17 (AKI). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were calculated per million and standardized to the 2000 U.S. population. Joinpoint regression analysis estimated annual percent change (APC) and AAMR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Stratifications included sex, race, state, region, and urbanization zone. Future AAMR trends were forecasted using ARIMA after ADF-based stationarity testing. Results: From 1999 to 2023, 11,414 deaths occurred due to AKI-associated MM. AAMR increased from 7.7 (95% CI: 6.8–8.7) to 14.1 (95% CI: 13.1–15.1) per million. The ARIMA model fit well (AIC 50.28, RMSE 3.19) and forecasted AAMR values of 10.32 in 2030 (CI: 7.12–13.52), 2040 (CI: 5.49–15.15), and 2050 (CI: 4.29–16.35). In 2050, the projected AAMR for males was 13.56 (95% CI: 5.11–22.02), compared with 8.12 (95% CI: 4.12–12.13) for females. Historically, males had higher AAMR (18.4 per million, 95% CI: 16.7–20.1) than females (11 per million, 95% CI: 9.8–12.1). Non-Hispanic Whites saw a consistent increase in mortality (APC 2.83%, 95% CI 1.92–5.70, P = 0.002), particularly in the South (APC 2.55%, 95% CI 1.77–3.57, P < 0.001), where AAMR rose from 7.3 (95% CI: 5.8–9) to 14 (95% CI: 12.5–15.6). Rural non-core areas had the highest AAMR (13.8 per million, 95% CI 10.2–18.3). South Dakota had the highest state-specific AAMR (16.2 per million, 95% CI: 11.8–21.9). Conclusion: MM-associated AKI mortality among older U.S. adults has increased significantly, particularly affecting males, non-Hispanic Whites, and residents of the southern U.S. and South Dakota. Given the disparities, targeted public health interventions are required to mitigate these inequalities. Grant/Funding Acknowledgements: Nil.
Volume
25
First Page
S928
