Acute Myeloid Leukemia-associated pneumonia mortality trends (1999-2023) and ARIMA-based projections through 2050 in geriatric u.S. adults
Recommended Citation
Tareen H, Dad A, Arham M, Khan SA, Zubair A, Khan MS, Altaf MT, Maqbool S, Bakht K, Saleem F, Ahmed H, Rehman Daim SU, Kumar M, Gogineni V. Acute Myeloid Leukemia-associated pneumonia mortality trends (1999-2023) and ARIMA-based projections through 2050 in geriatric u.S. adults. Blood 2025; 146(Supplement 1):6932.
Document Type
Conference Proceeding
Publication Date
11-3-2025
Publication Title
Blood
Abstract
Introduction: Pneumonia is a prevalent and serious complication in acute myeloid leukemia (AML), affecting more than 25% of treated patients and substantially contributing to adverse clinical outcomes. The hypothesis posits that AML-associated pneumonia mortality demonstrates significant socioeconomic and regional disparities across the U.S. population. Objective: To examine mortality trends in AML-associated pneumonia among U.S. adults aged ≥ 65 from 1999 to 2023 and project rates through 2050, focusing on socioeconomic disparities. Methods: Mortality data from the CDC WONDER “Multiple Cause of Mortality” dataset (1999–2023) were analyzed using ICD-10 codes for pneumonia (18) and AML (C92). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per million were standardized to the 2000 U.S. population. Joinpoint regression estimated annual percent change (APC) with 95% CI, using a significance threshold of p < 0.05. Trends were forecasted using ARIMA after ADF-based stationarity testing. Results: A total of 12,447 AML-associated pneumonia deaths were recorded. AAMR rose to 13.7 per million (95% CI: 12.7–14.7) in 2020. The ARIMA model, with AIC 33.41 and RMSE 1.05, projected AAMR of 11.6 in 2030 (CI: 8.73–14.47), 2040 (CI: 7.13–16.07), and 2050 (CI: 5.97–17.23). Males consistently exhibited higher AAMR, reaching 16.15 in 2050 (CI: 14.87–17.43), compared to females at 7.9 (CI: -0.69–16.49). Historically, males exhibited higher AAMR (peak: 19.9, 95% CI: 18.1–21.7) than females (9.6, 95% CI: 8.5–10.7). A significant increase was noted among non-Hispanic Whites (APC: 0.57%, 95% CI: 0.27–0.91; p < 0.001). The Western region reported the highest AAMR, maintaining 12.9 per million from 1999 to 2023. Large Central Metro areas peaked at 14.9 per million (95% CI: 12.9–17.0) in 2020. California had the highest state-level AAMR (14.5, 95% CI: 13.7–15.2).Conclusion: Mortality from AML-associated pneumonia increased from 1999 to 2023, peaking post-COVID. Significant disparities were observed among males, non-Hispanic Whites, residents of the West, large metropolitan areas, and California, indicating the necessity for targeted interventions in response to projected rising trends.
Volume
146
Issue
Supplement 1
First Page
6932
