AML-617: Longitudinal Trends (1999–2023) and Forecasted Mortality (2024–2050) in AML-Associated Sepsis Among US Older Adults
Recommended Citation
Dad A, Iftikhar A, Tareen H, Arham M, Zubair A, Khan MS, Khan SA, Bakht K, Nazir T, Jehangir H, Azeem M, Ahmed H. AML-617: Longitudinal Trends (1999–2023) and Forecasted Mortality (2024–2050) in AML-Associated Sepsis Among US Older Adults. Clin Lymphoma Myeloma Leuk 2025; 25:S444-S445.
Document Type
Conference Proceeding
Publication Date
9-1-2025
Publication Title
Clin Lymphoma Myeloma Leuk
Abstract
Sepsis remains a major complication in acute myeloid leukemia (AML), conferring a 4-fold increased risk in adult patients with AML compared with adult patients without AML. Objective: This study analyzes sepsis-related mortality trends in US adults aged ≥65 years with AML (1999–2023), highlights socioeconomic disparities, and projects mean age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) through 2050 to guide targeted public health efforts. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of CDC WONDER mortality data (1999–2023) using ICD-10 codes A41 (sepsis) and C92.0 (AML) from the Multiple Cause of Mortality dataset. We standardized AAMR to the 2000 U.S. population and calculated per million. We assessed trends using Joinpoint regression to estimate annual percentage change (APC) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Future AAMR projections through 2050 were estimated using Holt's linear exponential smoothing model in R. Results: From 1999 to 2023, AML-associated sepsis resulted in 16,060 deaths in the US. The AAMR increased from 11.8 per million (95% CI, 10.7–12.9) in 1999 to 17.1 per million (95% CI, 16.0–18.2) in 2019, with an APC of 1.19% (P < 0.000001). Men exhibited higher mortality rates than did women, with AAMR of 20.52 per million (95% CI, 19.9–20.5) compared with 10.06 per million (95% CI, 9.7–10.1). Non-Hispanic White patients exhibited the highest change in APC of 1.2778% (95% CI, 0.9302–1.6778; P < 0.00001) from 1999 to 2023. The Northeast region had the highest AAMR at 20.3 per million (95% CI, 17.4–23.2) in 2018. Moreover, rural areas showed a rise in mortality rates, from 6.5 per million (95% CI, 4–10) to 16.1 per million (95% CI, 12.8–19). Arkansas had the highest AAMR among all states. Forecasting data indicate AAMR will increase to 20.53 per million (95% CI, 18.84–22.22) by 2050. Conclusion: This study highlights the growing burden of AML-associated sepsis mortality among older adults in the US. The disproportionate effect on men, non-Hispanic White patients, and residents of the Northeast and Arkansas—along with projections of continued overall increases in mortality—underscores the need for prevention strategies, improved access to care, and tailored public health interventions. Grant/Funding Acknowledgements: None.
Volume
25
First Page
S444
Last Page
S445
