AML-608: Acute Myeloid Leukemia-Associated Pneumonia Mortality Trends (1999–2023) and ARIMA-Based Projections Through 2050 in Geriatric US Adults

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date

9-1-2025

Publication Title

Clin Lymphoma Myeloma Leuk

Abstract

Pneumonia is a prevalent and serious complication in acute myeloid leukemia (AML), affecting more than 25% of treated patients and substantially contributing to adverse clinical outcomes. The hypothesis posits that AML-associated pneumonia mortality demonstrates significant socioeconomic and regional disparities across the US population. Objective: To examine mortality trends in AML-associated pneumonia among US adults aged ≥65 years from 1999–2023 and project rates through 2050, focusing on socioeconomic disparities. Methods: Mortality data from the CDC WONDER Multiple Cause of Mortality dataset (1999–2023) were analyzed using ICD-10 codes for pneumonia (18) and AML (C92). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per million were standardized to the 2000 US population. Joinpoint regression estimated annual percent change (APC) with 95% CI, using a significance threshold of P < 0.05. Trends were forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model after augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF)-based stationarity testing. Results: A total of 12,447 AML-associated pneumonia deaths were recorded. AAMR rose to 13.7 per million (95% CI, 12.7–14.7) in 2020. The ARIMA model, with Akaike information criterion (AIC) of 33.41 and root mean square deviation (RMSE) of 1.05, projected AAMR of 11.6 in 2030 (95% CI, 8.73–14.47), 2040 (95% CI, 7.13–16.07), and 2050 (95% CI, 5.97–17.23). Males consistently exhibited higher AAMR, reaching 16.15 in 2050 (95% CI, 14.87–17.43), compared with females at 7.9 (95% CI, −0.69–16.49). Historically, males exhibited higher AAMR (19.9; 95% CI, 18.1–21.7) than did females (9.6; 95% CI, 8.5–10.7). A significant increase was noted among non-Hispanic Whites (APC = 0.57%; 95% CI, 0.27–0.91; P < 0.001). The Western region reported the highest AAMR, maintaining 12.9 per million from 1999 to 2023. Large central metro areas peaked at 14.9 per million (95% CI, 12.9–17.0) in 2020. California had the highest state-level AAMR at 14.5 (95% CI, 13.7–15.2). Conclusion: Mortality from AML-associated pneumonia increased from 1999 to 2023, peaking post-COVID. Significant disparities were observed among males, non-Hispanic Whites, residents of the West, large metropolitan areas, and California, indicating the necessity for targeted interventions in response to projected rising trends. Grant/Funding Acknowledgements: None.

Volume

25

First Page

S443

Last Page

S444

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